ACC Tournament First-Round Preview

(This article appeared originally on www.hokiehaven.com.)

Always a spectacle to watch, the highly anticipated ACC tournament kicks off Thursday in Tampa, Fla. Some of the nation's hottest teams will play in the opening round including the red hot Maryland Terrapins. Come on in to see what's in store for the game's tomorrow.

March 8 – FIRST ROUND

12:00pm - Clemson (21-9, 7-9 ACC) vs. Florida State (19-11, 7-9 ACC)

Welcome to the ACC, where a team that began the year 17-0 ends up the #8 seed in the conference tournament. Clemson finished the year winning just four of their last 13, but a stunning win in Blacksburg on Hokie Senior Day has given the Tiger faithful a glimmer of hope that a tourney run may be in the offing. Florida State's record isn't quite as good, but they have been by far the more solid team throughout the season, and are probably closer to making the field of 65 than the orange tigers. Florida State might be in with a win Thursday, and would definitely be in with a victory over North Carolina. Clemson might be in if they advance to the ACC finals, but anything short of winning the tournament will likely send them to the NIT. Clemson won both of the regular season contests between the squads, taking a 68-66 decision in Tallahassee, and sealing the sweep 71-58 back in the Palmetto State.

How Clemson Can Win: Clemson's two wins over the 'Noles came courtesy of plenty of extra possessions. In the two battles, FSU committed 35 turnovers and Clemson blocked 12 shots. Clemson has to control the basketball and benefit from the extra looks at the hoop.

How FSU Can Win: Someone else has to score. Al Thornton has gone for 21 and 19 points in the first two games, and only two other players in those two games have scored more than nine. That's not good. And in the second contest, Thornton was only 4-14 from the field, but no one else could make an impact. Guards Isaiah Swann and Jason Rich have to take open shots, and make them.

Who Will Win: Florida State has been cruising under the radar all year, and has a chance to be very special in Tampa. Al Thornton is the best ACC player south of Tobacco Road, and just seems like the type of player to have a couple big post season tournaments, and raise his pro stock considerably. Throw in the FSU-friendly crowd, and its NOLES BY 7.

2:00 pm – Maryland (24-7, 10-6 ACC) vs. Miami (11-19, 4-12 ACC)

In a year where both Cavs and Hokies didn't have major resurgences, Gary Williams would be in line for conference coaching honors. Despite that, he has led Maryland to a 7-game season-ending winning streak that has brought the Terps from the unfriendly side of the bubble to a possible top 4-5 seed. D.J. Strawberry and Mike Jones are experienced guards with size, and they'll make this team one of the most genuinely scary outs in the NCAAs. Back in January, Maryland lost, 63-58, to this Miami team, in an ugly contest where the Terps shot just 22%. Yikes. You probably won't see that kind of outing again, especially against a Hurricane unit surrendering 82 points a game since a February 21st upset of Virginia. And yet, is there another 11-win team in America with 4 wins as credible as at Evansville, Georgia Tech, at Maryland and Virginia? Miami has beaten some quality teams this year, and if Anthony Harris heats up (15 points per game in the 'Canes three ACC wins), Miami could win the game.

How Maryland Can Win: Keep the ball in your guards' hands. With Clemente out for the 'Canes, Maryland's guards, already a strength, will be in position to yield their superiority even more strongly.

How Miami Can Win: Fire, fire away. Jack McClinton is not afraid to shoot the rock, and the bravery has been on full display in recent 21 and 31 point outings to close the year. These wounded 'Canes can't hang with Maryland in a slow-down, execute, tactical battle. They've got to bomb away, hope one of the little guys gets hot, and feed off the no-one-believes in us energy.

What Will Happen: If the Terps shoot well, they should win handily. Execution, shot clock management, and control are their keys to the game. Letting the dangerous Canes hang around too long is a mistake. TERPS BY 9.

7:00 pm – Duke (22-9, 8-8 ACC) vs. NC State (15-14, 5-11 ACC)

Duke, #1 NCAA seed almost every year since 1998, are a seven seed in the ACC. Ain't it nice? Some folks are still touting the Dukies as a top 4-5 seed in the Dance, but they didn't beat ACC front runners UNC, Virginia, Virginia Tech or Maryland this year. One team they did beat is NC State, who is fighting for a winning season, although it will likely need two wins to make the NIT. The Devils rode 13 steals and a 5-rebound edge to a 79-56 victory in January. This tournament, and the one that starts next week, are the first big tests for floor general Greg Paulus and Josh McRoberts, to see if they'll be the "next great Dukies". Paulus hasn't impressed much, dishing only 3.8 assists on the year. If his shot stays true, however (46% 3P on the year), he can do some damage, and sneak up on some teams late. McRoberts is the key cat in this battle, however, as he fights against NC State's biggest, and only strength: size. The Pack gets 46 points a night combined from three players over 6-foot-8, Gavin Grant, Ben McCauley, and Brandon Costner. Grant is the most experienced of the three, but Costner is a future ACC Player of the Year. A tell-tale sign for how NC State will perform is how well Costner rebounds. Get this stat: since January 24, when Costner grabs seven boards or less, the Pack is 1-7. When he's in double digits, they're 3-0. McRoberts will leave the freshman un-boxed out at his peril.

How Duke Can Win: Box out Brandon Costner. Listen to Coach K.

How NC State Can Win: Attack the glass mercilessly, and take the game to McRoberts. A foul on the big guy is worth at least a couple baskets down the line.

What Will Happen: NC State matches up great with Duke, despite the early season hiccup. Duke still probably wins, but it won't be overwhelming, and Virginia will finish them off tomorrow. DUKE BY 4.

9:30 pm – Georgia Tech (20-10, 8-8 ACC) vs. Wake Forest (14-15, 5-11 ACC)

Tech is probably in after finishing the regular season with a victory over Boston College, but a win against Wake would seal the deal for Paul Hewitt's team. Wake is…well, pride is important, too. The Jackets are kind of a not-quite-as-talented version of last year's Florida Gators. They don't have a senior scoring more than five points a game, and they've got talent, athleticism and moxie. If Georgia Tech can control the basketball better than they did at weak parts of this season, they could roll into the Sweet Sixteen. The season series between these two squads was a split, with Wake defending the home court in January behind an 8-rebound advantage, and 26 and nine from senior center Kyle Visser. Wake hasn't won a game in 2007 where Visser didn't have at least 14 points and six boards.

How Georgia Tech Can Win: Drawing fouls on the big man and converting foul shots would be a great start. Not allowing strings of sloppy ball control and 3-4 straight turnovers would seal it.

How Wake Can Win: Try to make the Jackets play. Extend the shot clock, throw some press, force Tech to execute. The Deacons have no chance to out-athleticize, or even probably out-shoot Georgia Tech if the Jackets are hot. Forcing the young, often sloppy team to execute presents a recipe for an upset.

What Will Happen: The Yellow Jackets produce an impressive performance, and provide one mortal lock for tomorrow's slate of games: At 9:00, Tech will win. GEORGIA TECH BY 14.